Key memory points:
- verify diagnosis, establish existence of outbreak, develop case definition, develop case investigation form, find cases, develop case-line listing, describe by person/place/time, perform analytic epi, implement control measures, communicate, ongoing surveillance, declare outbreak over.
- Verify the diagnosis to rule out lab error
- Establish the existence of an outbreak by comparing observed rates to expected rates:
- state objectives of outbreak investigation (I.e. identify pathogen/source, identify cases and contacts and implement infection control measures to prevent further transmission). - Consider scientific and investigative resources required and form a team.
- review literature and guidelines
- consider need to include people from other teams and agencies (e.g. lab staff, EH officers)
- plan for field investigation (if required) including PPE and specimen collection - Construct a case definition based on clinical and/or laboratory findings and person/place/time.
- note that a looser case definition will be more sensitive, but it may need to be tightened to make it more specific as the investigation continues. - Undertake active case finding, develop a case investigation form and develop a line listing.
- Perform descriptive epidemiology and identify hypotheses:
- graph an epi curve to describe cases over time
- may also want to develop a geographical map of cases
- may also want to describe host characteristics and exposure characteristics (e.g. occupation/leisure activities/medication use/smoking/drugs) - Test hypothesis and undertake additional studies as necessary:
- test hypotheses through environmental evidence, lab evidence and/or analytic epidemiology
- conduct retrospective cohort study if outbreak occurs in a small, well-defined population (e.g. gastro outbreak at wedding). Calculate attack rate for exposed versus non-exposed for each potential causative exposure, and then use this to calculate relative risk between exposed and unexposed. Can test statistical significance through Chi-squared test (for >30 people) or Fisher Exact test.
- conduct a case control study if the population is not well defined. Calculate odds ratios. Controls must not have the disease being studied but should be representative of the population in which cases occurred. Can source controls through survey methods (e.g. household survey), neighbours of cases, friends of cases, patients from same GP clinic or hospital without disease.
- if analytic studies are not revealing, must rethink hypothesis. - Implement control and prevention measures:
- interrupt transmission and prevent further cases through control measures targeting one or more stages of transmission (agent/host/environment/vector/mode of transmission). - Communicate findings
- Continue surveillance and declare outbreak over once two incubation periods have passed.