Recent and Potential Future Impact of CC on Biodiversity Flashcards Preview

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1
Q

Major threats to biodiversity at the moment

A
  1. Over-exploitation
  2. Agricultural activity
  3. Urban development
  4. Invasion and disease
  5. Pollution
  6. System modification
  7. Climate change

Maxwell et al 2016

CC effects a 1/4 of species over exploitation does however, strong possibility it could become dominant

2
Q

CC extinctions

A

Golden toad 1989
Costa Rica Cloud Forest
1989
Drying of forest due to el nino event

Bramble Cay Melomys
2009
CC induced sea level rise and extreme storm events flooded entire island
Short term extreme event enough

3
Q

How can we see how species have reacted to CC in the past

A

Fossil and pollen records

eg after last glacial period
Oaks started to colonise out of refugee, then beech (more limited dispersal ability)

Current climate change at unprecedented rate

4
Q

Recent species changes due to CC

A

Grey whales in Mediterranean formerly only in california but now ice caps melting there is a route through

UK colonists- purple heron, little bittern

Dartford Warbler moving up

Not just range shifts but abundance changes too

Comma butterfly was limited to small area in S Wales thought due to CC and change in food source it rapidly expanded its distribution and now up to scotland

5
Q

What is a species distribution model

A

Try and relate climate data to species distributions (typically omit much biology such as could a app disperse there) also assumes climate is a key driver of distributions

Can look at rainfall, temperature, growing degree days,
Point data to see current distributions and polygon range outlines

Issue is where more biodiversity is they tend to be poorer countries and so have fewer weather stations so we have less data about important climates

Furthermore current data sets quite variable. Temp data can be quite consistent but ppt hugely variable –> makes predictions harder. Even current models hugely varied - Baker et al 2016

6
Q

What is an Indicator

A

A group of species who weighted population trends (when taken together) reflects the average behaviour of the constituents spp group.

Some incr under cc some decr

Could see if spp already being affected eg farmland birds seen to be decreasing

primarily arctic spp in the uk doing less well

Mediterranean doing better

They projected some over the EU and USA
In EU spp predicted to do better haven’t been changing much. But declining are declining

In US those expected to do worse haven’t change and better are increasing,

The gap between the 2 groups is quite similar. CC happening now

7
Q

Which 2 butterflies are reacting differently to CC

A

Comma- high mobility, generalist, tracking climate

Silver studded blue- low mobility, habitat specialist, restricted in area of apparent suitable climate

8
Q

SDM for endemic bird richness in albertine rift valley

A

East Africa 14 endemic spp
Likely to have to shift to higher evlations to follow nicee and retreat North up the valley

By 2085 huge areas will have disappeared of appropriate habitat. Massive loss in app richness in many areas. One big mountain of the mountains of the moon remains biodiverse throughout the period. So if you want to protect somewhere, protect here.

9
Q

Baker et al 2015

Species in Africa

A

Our results suggest that climate change has the potential to severely impact regional fauna and to reduce the effectiveness of the PA network to conserve the region’s biodiversity.

Using a region- ally appropriate, dynamically downscaled ensemble of climate projections, which captures both large-scale (e.g. West African Monsoon) and local climate regimes, we have attempted to reduce the uncertainty associated with projec- tions across climatically complex regions.

Our results indicate that there is considerable spatial heter- ogeneity in projected impacts, both within and between taxo- nomic groups, with the average severity of projected impacts and their uncertainty increasing towards the end of century.

The climatic conditions pre- dicted for single grid cells are representative of the mean climate expected in a cell, but cannot capture the finer-scale climatic variability.

A frequent problem for multitaxa analyses conducted across broad spatial scales and at relatively coarse resolutions is the inevitable omission of species with small range extents that are difficult to model due to a paucity of data.

(1) adaptation planning should primarily consider early-, and possibly mid-, century impact projec- tions in order to have most confidence in species responses (Chapman et al., 2014) and (2) future studies of climate change impacts should incorporate a broad suite of species and use multiple approaches to balance biases present in dif- ferent approaches (e.g. correlative, trait-based, expert opin- ion)

Substantial species turnover across the network is projected for all three taxonomic groups by 2100 (amphibians = 42.5% (median); birds = 35.2%; mammals = 37.9%),

10
Q

Adaptive management using species turnover

A

That colourful pictures
Can apply these colours to areas see how species turn over
Often specially aggregated (especially for IBA in Africa)
Congo has regions of high stability- can continue to manage as is
Sites of high turnover (eg Botswana) may benefit from increasing connectivity

May have to translocate some species in anthropogenic sources blocking movement or bad dispersers

In South America lots of areas have high turnover - especially Amazon

Can plot for spp across africa and suggest wider management strategies
can also look at projected range alterations to see the areas with the highest numbers of species moving through them

Can also stack predictions of range changes for many species typical of a particular habitat to show how entire communities may shift

11
Q

What are adaptive management strategies under CC

A

Adaptive management is a systematic approach
for improving resource management by learning from management outcomes. An adaptive approach involves exploring alterna- tive ways to meet management objectives, predicting
the outcomes of alternatives based on the current state
of knowledge, implementing one or more of these alternatives, monitoring to learn about the impacts of management actions, and then using the results to update knowledge and adjust management actions (15). Adaptive management focuses on learning and adapting, through partnerships of managers, scientists, and other stake- holders who learn together how to create and maintain sustainable resource systems (3).

Adaptive management strategies urgently required bc substantial disruption predicted with cc

Broad range of tools

  • protect key ecosystem features
  • reduce anthropogenic pressures
  • restoration
  • translocation

Management can be aimed at enhancing system persistence or promoting system transformation

12
Q

IBAs in SE Asia

A

Much more diverse than africa

Adjoining areas have different patterns of turnover making generalising management strategies more difficult. Sea level rise effects this area too. Intertidal and salt marsh habitats likely affected- may want to push PA further inland

Can use fine scale distribution data to model specific regions eg albertine rift valley

13
Q

What is a vulnerability assessment

A

Circle picture

Foden et al 2013

As an alternative to SDM models, Foden et al. (2013) propose assessing species according to their exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity to climate change.
Could be combined with SDMs to produce refined risks for many species that also consider species traits.

14
Q

What are potential mitigation measures?

A
  1. Identify key stable sites- refugia- sites that retain the complement of species they currently support and/or are able to support other spp that disperse into them as range shifts eg areas of highly variable topography such as mountains eg cameroon highlands
  2. Variable buffer zones around PAs- as ranges begin to shift they could move into buffer areas which could then be upgraded to full protection. Also reduce edge effects and human disturbance. Useful in short/medium term but unlikely practicable for many spp/PAs in long term due to magnitude of potential range shifts. Could be used with 3

eg Rudd’s alpacas expected to shift >750 km between now and 2080 - too big for buffer

  1. Stepping stones- unconnected areas of preserved or restored habitat allowing for movement between PA through unsuitable habitat or over places too large for no stop dispersal.
    eg Gabela’s helmet shrike shifting SE would benefit from stepping stones between IBAs
  2. Species translocations- transport and/or release of wild /CB individuals to the sites deemed suitable. Where new pops can be established.
    - creation of non-analog communities?
    - a lot of species may need this. possible?

eg great bustard introduced to UK where it hasn’t bred for 200 years to re-establish new population. It bred for the first time a few years ago. To date, reintroductions are generally where a species has been in the past and now no longer persists.

15
Q

Assisted colonisation example

A

Translocating a species threatened by CC

Marbled White Butterfly
Poor dispersal ability (1km/yr).
Introduced pop to suitable area beyond species dispersal capacity.
The pop at wingate quarry has persisted and expanded at rates similar to natural colonisations.
Distribution of introduced pop grew from 7.2ha–> 17.8ha
Model predicted where it could persist and was right
After 9 years still persisting and expanding- climate models providing useful info about individual spp
Can then do retrospective analysis to see if we could’ve predicted what happened

176 instances of butterflies being released into novel areas (planned and unofficial)
Used climate envelope to simulate climate suitability in successful (present for more than 10 years) and unsuccessful sites
Suitability at successful sites was almost double that at sites of failed releases

16
Q

Assessing mechanisms for impacts of CC

A

Got marbled white butterfly larvae
Divided in 20 pops of 10
Placed one of each group in 1 of 4 different temperature treatments based on average monthly temperature at Durham (2000-2008) +4, +2, 0, -2 degrees
Took weekly measurements of mass, instar (developmental stage), head capsule size, colour, mortality, sex.

Even after 1 month could see difference. Those growing at lower temps had reduced developmental rates- probably insufficient to reach adulthood by summer.
Can conclude where organisms should survive.
If temperature around a site varies may limit dispersal. Aids our understanding of species range margins.

17
Q

What is Africa Climate exChange

A

Website for conservation practitioners to access their model predictions for changes in climate suitability for individual bird species