Time series

Question 1

What are seasonal fluctuations?

Answer 1

Regular fluctuations based on the seasons.

Question 2

What are cyclical fluctuations?

Answer 2

Regular fluctuations that are not based on the seasons.

Question 3

What are random fluctuations?

Answer 3

When there is no pattern.

Question 4

What is the formula for seasonal effect?

Answer 4

seasonal effect = observed value - trend value.

Question 5

How can the mean seasonal effect be found?

Answer 5

Σseasonal effect / n

Question 6

How can a prediction be made from a trend line?

Answer 6

1. Extend the trend line.

2. Adjust up or down, using the mean seasonal effect for that season.